40th Anniversary of Grey System Theory celebrated in China and abroad
On Nov 29, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) held the opening ceremony of an exhibition to commemorate the 40th birth anniversary of the Grey System Theory.
Professor Deng Julong published his seminal paper “Control problems of grey systems” in the journal Systems & Control Letters in 1982. The year marked the birth of a new science of Grey System Theory. What is Grey System Theory? Professor Sifeng Liu, a famous teacher of the national “Ten Thousand Talent Plan” and director of the Institute of Grey System Studies of NUAA, introduced that, colloquially speaking, the so-called grey system is between the white system and the black box. It’s not all known information like the white system, and it’s not all unknown information like the black box. Grey system is to extract valuable information through the mining and development of the “part” of known information, so as to achieve the correct description of system operation behavior and evolution law, so that people can use mathematical models to achieve the prediction, decision and optimization control of uncertain system with “poor information”. Professor Deng Julong established the Grey System Theory based on the in-depth research and exploration of the control problem of uncertain systems with poor information.
Professor Naiming Xie, deputy dean of the School of Economics and Management of the NUAA, said that the grey system is characterized by solving the problem of less data and poor information. “As a powerful tool for modeling, analysis, prediction and decision-making of poor information systems, the Grey System Theory has unique advantages when applied to data analysis in complex equipment development.”
Sifeng Liu told reporters that major equipment such as aerospace has a significant “poor information” characteristic, “during the Second World War, aerospace equipment was manufactured in large quantities, people found that a lot of rockets, aircraft reliability is very low, some countries’ aircraft fell down more than others shot down, some rockets exploded on the take-off platform. Sifeng Liu said that in the face of major equipment reliability problems, scientists around the world carried out research, and the reliability growth model built by American scholars based on stochastic analysis theory has been widely adopted by countries around the world. In recent years, in the absence of sufficient data, Chinese scientists have tried to apply the method and model of grey system to solve the problem of reliability growth evaluation and prediction, and have innovated and developed the original local theory.
Academician Zhongde Shan, President of the NUAA, said that the grey system theory, which was born in China, has formed a relatively perfect system structure in the 40 years of development through the unremitting efforts of several generations. It has been widely used to solve practical problems in the fields of natural science, social science and engineering technology, and has achieved a lot of application results in China and many countries in the world.
Up to now, scholars from more than 100 countries and regions have published more than 300,000 research and application papers on grey system theory, which has strongly promoted the innovation and development of various fields. The theory has been widely used in the development of major aerospace models, the application of mechanical engineering, power engineering, geotechnical engineering, hydrology, water resources and hydraulic engineering. Especially in the development of major aerospace models, it solved the problem of “poor information” data modeling and analysis for the development of COMAC C919 large passenger aircraft, ensuring the successful development of C919, perfect maiden flight and airworthiness evidence; It solved the problems of quality control and reliability test analysis of small data and poor information of Beijing Institute of Telemetry, and ensured the development progress, quality and reliability of Long March 5 and Long March 5B carrier rocket supporting products.
Today, the Grey System Theory has become a popular methodology of decision-making, data analysis and forecasting not only in China but also in abroad. In 2019, then German Chancellor Angela Merkel appreciated the works of the pioneers of the Grey System Theory – Professors Deng Julong and Sifeng Liu – for making “a profound impact on the world.” Today, the Grey Systems Societies have been formed in Poland, Pakistan and Turkey. An International Association of Grey Systems and Uncertainty Analysis also exists. There are several international journals dedicated to the research and development of the Grey System Theory, e.g., Grey Systems Theory and Application, The Journal of Grey System, International Journal of Grey Systems, among others.
On November 28, the Grey Systems Society of Pakistan (GSSP) also celebrated the 40th birth anniversary of the Grey System Theory by organizing a grey systems education seminar in Lahore, the capital of Pakistan’s most populous province. The seminar was chaired by Dr. Muhammad Nawaz, the Vice President of the GSSP. Dr. Nawaz introduced the participants to the origin of the Grey System Theory in China and its development in China, Pakistan, and abroad. He highlighted the role played by Pakistani scholars in developing the Grey System Theory. He also read the letter written by Dr. Saad Javed, the President of the GSSP and the editor of the International Journal of Grey Systems, in which he encouraged the new generation of Pakistanis to learn new techniques and methods of data analysis, forecasting, and problem-solving such as grey models. Nawaz told the audience that the GSSP would continue holding such activities in the future to train a new generation of grey systems scientists.
